Who are sharps and why people follow them
There are two kinds of bettors. Most bet on gut feeling and lose in the long run — at least the margin. A small minority bet in a way that steadily takes money from the market. They are called sharps.
Sharp vs lucky
Anyone can win ten bets in a row. A sharp is defined not by a streak but by sample size: hundreds or thousands of bets and still in profit. Key signs:
- Profit over a large sample. +5% ROI over 30 bets means little; over 500 it is serious.
- They beat the closing price. This is called CLV — see “CLV: the number that matters”.
- Discipline. Consistent stake sizes, no chasing losses.
Where you can see them
Bookmakers hide their customers' bets. On prediction markets like Polymarket every trade is recorded on a public blockchain: which wallet bought which outcome and at what price. So you can compute any wallet's history and find those who stay in profit.
Why you can't just copy
We tested it on our own data: 2,260 outcomes that sharps bet on. The honest result:
- copying everything returned about −7%;
- live betting was worse — about −11%: by the time you copy, the price has moved;
- wallets that had just been hot tended to lose afterwards — the “hot hand” doesn't last.
Conclusion: a sharp's bet is information, not a ready-made decision. It is useful to see where big money goes, how the line moves and whether several strong players agree. The decision is yours.
How PrognosX works with sharps
PrognosX tracks hundreds of profitable wallets, shows their bets within seconds, merges parts of one purchase into one position and tracks every signal to the result — wins and losses alike. Betting is risky, 18+.